Future Theories

Who will be the next Mayor of New York City?

When will Broadway theater and the city arts scene be 100% back-in-business?

We'll find out at some point in the relatively near future but, right now, we can only guess. We can only ponder. We're currently in a kind of "silly season", when everything great and horrible seems possible, when there are a multitude of possibilities, when there seem to be many roads that NYC could take. What roads will we take?

We can only theorize. 

Recently I heard Alec Baldwin on his podcast talk with Robert Wankel, the head of the Schubert Organization. Wankel is one of the most powerful figures on the Great White Way, the man who makes many of the shows we love possible. He says that, at the moment, plans are to reopen in December but, obviously, this will depend on "herd immunity", infection rates, etc. that we can only theorize about ... at the moment. What's most interesting to learn from this podcast are some of the statistics that Wankel presents that make you understand just how much COVID-19 has devastated Broadway and the city's arts business. Along with finance and real estate, the arts business is in the top five of the city's economic engines. Did you know that the Times Square area alone is responsible for the employment of 96,000 people? The arts isn't just some sideshow in NYC, some economic add-on -- it's an essential part of the city's economy and identity, it drives tourism, and its recovery is vital to the future of NYC.

Then there's who will be running the city next year.

Right now there's a bunch of candidates running for mayor but Andrew Yang, for reasons that defy logic, is currently leading in the polls and getting all the media attention. He has no experience in government and, based on his public statements, no real understanding of the city, its people, or public policy. Many people, including yours truly, are sounding the alarm -- remember the last time the public bestowed great executive power on an inexperienced but media-savvy neophyte? The good news is that there's still time for another candidate to emerge and, at the moment, it looks like it might be City Comptroller Scott Stringer. He might, just might, overwhelm Yang and win the primary if he's able to make clear how his quiet competence and experience is much better than Yang's empty media spectacle. Stringer has been elected to city-wide office twice before and is well known to the voters. The primary isn't until June. I theorize that either Stringer, or possibly Brooklyn BP Eric Adams, will overwhelm Yang -- or Yang's support will just collapse anyway -- that one of them will be the next mayor (assuming victory in the general election). But if Yang keeps up his momentum, and wins the primary and general election ... then the city will then be in real trouble.

Fingers crossed the former scenario, the first theory prevails. 

This post will be an interesting one to read again a year -- or several from now -- to see if these theories are correct or totally wrong.