Thursday, February 14, 2019

The Real (or Not) Things

So Amazon won't open a campus in Long Island City after all -- on this Valentine's Day, it's chosen the withdrawal method (sorry, couldn't resist).

Basically, since it refused to work with the community it was preparing to dominate, since it demanded $3 billion in tax breaks that some people thought might just be a give-away, since people DARED to ask questions about what this deal might do to NYC, since people wanted it to unionize, Amazon chose to back out and take its 25,000 jobs with them. 

I have mixed feelings about this -- I liked the idea of thousands of more jobs, obviously, but not the tax breaks and gentrification. We'll never know now if this was really going to be the economic engine it was promised -- but rarely do these kind of projects (like big stadiums) really trickle-down to the people in terms of more tax revenue.

So long Amazon -- it was never real.

Also, in the wake of AOC's shocking victory in her Congressional primary last year, a number of New York Congresspeople are facing potential primary challenges next year. They believe she represents the start of a movement that will capsize the political establishment and usher in a new class of younger, more progressive leaders.

Maybe. But probably not. 

In very few cases, incumbents almost always win. AOC was the exception because: 1) she was and is an amazing, raw, totally natural political talent the likes of which I haven't seen in NYC in a long time, and, let's be honest, most of these challengers, like most politicians, probably don't have that level of talent; 2) outsider that she was, AOC ran a very smart, coordinated, professional campaign, she was no amateur -- and many challenger campaigns are underfunded and amateurish; 3) the incumbent that AOC beat, Joe Crowley, had fallen out of favor in the district since everyone knows he basically lives in Maryland; and 4) the demographics and the political environment were on AOC's side -- she is a Hispanic and the district had become overwhelmingly non-white and Joe Crowley was, with all due respect, a white guy.

Numerous factors added up to help AOC win that were sui generis to her, the incumbent she beat, and the district and these factors were unlikely to be duplicated elsewhere. 

I remember back in the mid-1990s when Quentin Tarantino burst onto the movie scene -- suddenly, a whole generation of aspiring filmmakers wanted to write and direct movies just like his. There was a whole slew of Tarantino wrip-off movies that followed -- and they sucked, and they failed, and the people who made them went nowhere professionally. 

The same, I'm guessing, will be true here -- AOC is the Tarantino of politics, a brilliant and unique talent with amazing success, and a whole generation of young politicians wants to do what she did, wants to be her, and they just aren't, and they can't, and they won't be. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery -- but imitation is not and never will be the real thing. 



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